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What will Tesla say during the roadster event? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 15, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Mentions · Event KXTSLAMENTION-26OCT15
As of October 15, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is SpaceX at 92%, followed by Fly / Flying at 90%, Thruster / Rocket at 87%. 25.8K contracts have traded, 23.8K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| SpaceX | 92% | · | 708 | 695 |
| Fly / Flying | 90% | +15 pts | 2.8K | 1.4K |
| Thruster / Rocket | 87% | +13 pts | 2.6K | 1.4K |
| Cold Gas | 77% | · | 443 | 369 |
| Full Self-Driving / FSD | 74% | +33 pts | 2.3K | 1.8K |
| 2027 | 69% | +47 pts | 1.5K | 1.1K |
| Hover / Hovering | 68% | +34 pts | 1.3K | 1.1K |
| Street Legal | 55% | · | 2.1K | 1.7K |
| Carbon Fiber / Composite | 53% | -12 pts | 404 | 295 |
| 2028 | 48% | · | 771 | 766 |
| Wing / Spoiler | 46% | · | 622 | 622 |
| Grok | 46% | -15 pts | 2.0K | 1.7K |
| Fan Car / Ducted Fan | 38% | · | 20 | 20 |
| One-Piece Seat / Monolithic Seat | 24% | · | 41 | 41 |
| 620 Mile | 22% | · | 407 | 397 |
| Merge / Merger | 20% | · | 16 | 16 |
| FAA | 17% | · | 1.1K | 928 |
| James Bond | 13% | -14 pts | 3.4K | 2.0K |
| Event does not qualify | 4.0% | +3 pts | 1.8K | 1.2K |
| Lidar | 3.5% | · | 1.4K | 1.4K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If any Tesla representative says SpaceX as part of Tesla roadster event originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the Tesla roadster event originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Tesla roadster event originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). any Tesla representative speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during …”
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for What will Tesla say during the roadster event?
As of October 15, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is SpaceX at 92%, followed by Fly / Flying at 90%, Thruster / Rocket at 87%. 25.8K contracts have traded, 23.8K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the What will Tesla say during the roadster event market close?
The listed close date is October 29, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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What will Tesla say during the roadster event? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 15). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 15, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-tesla-say-during-the-roadster-event/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhatwillteslasayduringtheroadsterevent, title = {What will Tesla say during the roadster event? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-15 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-tesla-say-during-the-roadster-event/}}HTML credit
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