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The wording includes 2025 or 2026. Do not shorten it to “two negative quarters during 2026” without checking how the live market applies boundary quarters. The same caution applies to the estimate vintage: the final deadline references the Advance Estimate of Q4 2026, but the primary rule does not fully state a single controlling vintage for every quarter.
| Question | KXRECSSNBER-26 snapshot | NBER chronology |
|---|---|---|
| Decision rule | Two consecutive negative GDP-growth quarters | Judgment based on depth, diffusion, and duration |
| Primary source | BEA GDP | Multiple monthly and quarterly indicators |
| Fixed formula? | Yes, under the quoted event condition | No fixed formula |
| Two negative quarters sufficient? | Yes, if they satisfy the exact live event wording | Not automatically |
| Announcement timing | Event-specific close and expiration | No fixed timing rule; committee waits for enough evidence |
NBER explicitly says most recessions in its chronology include at least two negative real-GDP quarters, but not all do. It cites the 2001 recession as a case without two consecutive negative quarters. Therefore the Kalshi event can be a precise tradable rule without being a forecast of the NBER's eventual judgment.
For each quarter in the pair, the growth value must be negative under the ordinary meaning of the reviewed rule:
A value of exactly 0.0% is not negative. A hypothetical sequence of -0.4% followed by -0.1% contains two consecutive negative quarters; -0.4% followed by 0.0% does not. Use the published BEA values and the exact live terms rather than a private nowcast or an unrounded estimate.
BEA publishes an Advance Estimate near the end of the month after a quarter, followed by second and third estimates. These are successive vintages based on more complete source data. The reviewed market's final timing sentence refers to the Q4 2026 Advance Estimate, but its primary payout sentence only says “according to” BEA.
That is not enough text to invent a universal revision policy. Save the live rules, record the BEA release vintage that creates a possible qualifying pair, and monitor Kalshi's official market determination. A later revision can change the economic history even when a market outcome has already followed its governing terms.
BEA's headline quarterly real-GDP change is normally expressed at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Annualization answers what the rate would be if the quarter-to-quarter pace continued for four quarters; it is not a year-over-year growth rate.
The sign remains the key event input: a negative annualized rate indicates that the quarter's real-GDP level fell from the preceding quarter. Do not mix it with nominal GDP, GDI, annual real-GDP growth, or a recession model.
Suppose a hypothetical 100-contract YES order crosses two ask levels. These are teaching numbers, not a market snapshot or claimed fill:
| Ask | Quantity | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| $0.19 | 30 | $5.70 |
| $0.23 | 70 | $16.10 |
| Total | 100 | $21.80 |
If an independent, rule-matched estimate assigns a 28% probability to the exact event:
The 19-cent top ask is not the executable price for all 100 contracts. Fees raise break-even above 21.8%. A winning purchased position has a $100 gross settlement value; a losing position risks the $21.80 purchase cost plus applicable fees. Use the slippage calculator and payout calculator with current depth and fees.
An executed YES price can be interpreted as a market-implied break-even probability before fees under the exact contract condition. It is not the probability of every ordinary-language meaning of recession. Bid-ask spread, depth, position limits, participant mix, and time to resolution also matter.
Record at least the event ticker, side, bid, ask, available size, last update time, rule version, and source when quoting an implied probability. This guide omits current odds because an untimestamped number would become stale and because the rule distinction is the durable search value.
The public event snapshot reviewed July 17, 2026 says Yes if there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026 according to BEA. The live rules and official determination control.
No. Although NBER appears in ticker KXRECSSNBER-26, the reviewed primary rule names two consecutive negative GDP-growth quarters and the event lists BEA as the settlement source. Read the rule, not just the ticker.
No. NBER says it evaluates depth, diffusion, and duration across multiple indicators and does not use a fixed two-quarter GDP formula. The Kalshi event condition and NBER chronology are different questions.
No under ordinary mathematical usage. Negative means below zero, so exactly 0.0% is not negative. If a live rule adds a special convention, that rule controls.
The reviewed API snapshot listed a January 31, 2027 8:25 AM ET close and 10:00 AM expected expiration, with a February 7 fallback. Its secondary rule also allows earlier close and expiration if the event occurs. Recheck the live timestamps and BEA schedule.
The reviewed primary rule says according to BEA but does not fully specify the controlling estimate vintage for every quarter. The final deadline references the Q4 Advance Estimate. Do not assume a universal revision policy that the rule does not state; save the live terms and follow the official determination.
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