By Kalshi View Editorial Team · 2026-09-24

Photo: Mathieu Landretti. Source (Openverse). License: by-sa.

Public Law 119-103 December 11 Funding: Kalshi October 1 and December 12 Shutdown Markets

Shutdown contracts resolve on rule text, not on headlines. Two things changed since the last deadline-week check: the continuing resolution is now law, and a second Kalshi market, pegged to December 12, was listed on September 22, 2026. This guide lays out what is enacted, what each market actually asks, and which official signals matter on October 1.

Primary sources checked: 05:31-05:34Z, September 24, 2026, including the govinfo record for Public Law 119-103, the Kalshi shutdown-series market data, CFTC designated contract market registration for Kalshi LLC, and OPM furlough guidance.

Public Law 119-103: December 11 Funding Is Now Enacted

The Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027 was signed into law on September 2, 2026, and now carries the Public Law 119-103 December 11 funding endpoint. The govinfo details page for PLAW-119publ103, fetched September 24, shows the act's title and the September 2, 2026 approval date. The govinfo bulk listing of 119th Congress public laws runs through 119-110, and the laws numbered after 119-103 are unrelated acts, which confirms the CR as the operative funding law.

The enactment timeline carries earlier verified dates. Senate Appropriations Chair Collins referenced the December 11 endpoint in an August 2 release and August 7 floor remarks; the Senate-passed bill cleared the House 370-48 on September 1, 2026 per the House Appropriations Committee passage statement; Senator Murray issued a statement that day. Senate committee pages were not retrievable at the September 24 snapshot, so those facts carry the September 11 verification date.

Under 31 U.S.C. § 1102, fiscal year 2026 ends Wednesday, September 30, 2026, and fiscal year 2027 begins Thursday, October 1, 2026. The fiscal calendar explainer covers those mechanics. The practical read: appropriations are in place through December 11, 2026, so the next possible lapse-of-appropriations cliff is the CR's expiry that day, one day before the December 12 market's 10:00 AM ET check. This page does not predict what Congress or the President will do next.

What the October 1 Kalshi Market Actually Resolves On

At the snapshot, KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01 is ACTIVE, open since June 9, 2026, closing 2026-10-01T14:00:00Z (10:00 AM ET). The title reads, verbatim, "Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?" The primary rule reads, verbatim: "If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

Three details matter when mapping the rule to the news flow:

• The check is a point-in-time test at 10:00 AM ET on October 1, not a continuous test across the day.
• The trigger is a lapse of appropriations producing at least a partial shutdown. The rules describe a shutdown as the orderly suspension of agency work not excepted by law, typically with furloughs, when funding is unavailable.
• Resolution examples point to two official signals: an OMB directive to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown" in effect as of 10:00 AM ET that day, and OPM operating-status language such as "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency." Non-examples include a purely technical lapse with OMB directing standard operations, and holiday or weather closures.

Funding being enacted does not state this market's outcome. Both markets in this piece were ACTIVE at the snapshot, and current prices, status, and rule text must be verified directly on Kalshi. The earlier deadline-week funding status check shows how the picture looked before enactment was confirmed.

New at This Snapshot: the December 12 Shutdown Market

KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26DEC12 was not listed at the September 11 snapshot. It opened 2026-09-22T22:30:00Z and closes 2026-12-12T15:00:00Z (10:00 AM ET). The title reads "Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026?" and the primary rule reads, verbatim: "If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Secondary rules mirror the October market's structure, with OMB and OPM examples dated December 12.

The calendar logic is the point. The Public Law 119-103 December 11 funding endpoint defines the next cliff, and this market checks shutdown status at 10:00 AM ET on December 12, the morning after that endpoint. The December 11 funding cliff explainer walks through what that deadline requires from Congress. No prediction is made here about December action.

Other Shutdown-Related Series in the September 24 Data

• KXGOVTFULLFUND-26AUG: all 9 government-wide funding markets show status FINALIZED, with the series settled September 3, 2026. Individual Yes/No settlement outcomes are not stated because they were not captured at the snapshot.
• KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01: 4 active markets (T2, T3, T4, and T5), each closing 2027-01-01T14:59:00Z. A sample title, verbatim: "Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?" This series returned no markets at the September 11 snapshot; the listing is presented strictly as a dated fact.

Dated market data: KXGOVTFULLFUND series and KXNUMSHUTDOWNS series.

What to Watch on October 1, 2026

A short checklist tied to the contract's own triggers:

• OMB directive language: whether the Office of Management and Budget tells agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown" in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on October 1. That phrasing is the rule's example of a Yes-side signal.
• OPM operating status: the OPM status and furlough guidance pages, where lapse-of-appropriations operating status is posted.
• Fiscal-year turnover itself: September 30 to October 1 is the FY2026 to FY2027 boundary. With funding already enacted through December 11, the turnover alone is not a lapse event; the October market asks about appropriations, not calendar change.
• Contract verification: confirm live rule text, status, and fees on Kalshi before acting. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, settles in U.S. dollars, and requires identity verification; access can be international subject to the Member Agreement, restricted jurisdictions, and local law.

For listing updates between scheduled checks, the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram posts notes as new series appear, and the evergreen shutdown market source checklist covers the standing verification routine.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is a government shutdown happening on October 1, 2026?

No prediction is made here. At the September 24, 2026 snapshot, KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01 was ACTIVE and funding was already enacted through December 11, 2026. The contract resolves on whether a lapse-of-appropriations shutdown is in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 1, and current prices and rule text must be checked directly on Kalshi.

What is Public Law 119-103?

Public Law 119-103 is the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, signed into law on September 2, 2026, per the govinfo details page for PLAW-119publ103. It is the December 11 funding extension: appropriations run through December 11, 2026, making that date the next possible lapse-of-appropriations cliff. The House passed the measure 370-48 on September 1, 2026.

When is the next federal funding deadline after October 1, 2026?

December 11, 2026, the expiry written into the continuing resolution enacted as Public Law 119-103. The December 12 Kalshi market checks shutdown status at 10:00 AM ET on December 12, the morning after that endpoint. What Congress and the President do about the deadline is not predicted here; track official appropriations sources instead.

What does the December 12 Kalshi shutdown market ask?

Verbatim, the primary rule reads: "If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." The market, KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26DEC12, opened September 22, 2026 and closes 2026-12-12T15:00:00Z. Verify current rules and availability directly on Kalshi.

Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.