Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Sports · Event KXBALLONDOR-26
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Harry Kane at 54%, followed by Lamine Yamal at 40%, Lionel Messi at 4.5%. 13.8M contracts have traded, 268.0K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Harry Kane ■ Lamine Yamal ■ Lionel Messi · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Harry Kane at 54%, followed by Lamine Yamal at 40%, Lionel Messi at 4.5%. 13.8M contracts have traded, 268.0K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is December 31, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-win-the-ballon-d-or-in-2026/">Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-win-the-ballon-d-or-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhowillwintheballondorin2026, title = {Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-win-the-ballon-d-or-in-2026/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
