Kalshi odds today › Mentions
What will Trump say during his rally in Texas? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Mentions · Event KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT07
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Paxton at 98%, followed by Talarico / Talafreako at 98%, Fake News at 96%. 83.7K contracts have traded, 83.0K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Paxton | 98% | · | 9.6K | 8.0K |
| Talarico / Talafreako | 98% | · | 8.0K | 6.3K |
| Fake News | 96% | · | 718 | 695 |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 96% | · | 636 | 601 |
| Transgender | 96% | · | 6.1K | 4.6K |
| Healthcare | 94% | · | 4.7K | 3.2K |
| Dividend / Stimulus | 94% | · | 1.6K | 1.5K |
| Save America Act | 92% | · | 2.1K | 2.0K |
| Fraud | 92% | · | 1.3K | 1.2K |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | 90% | · | 1.8K | 1.5K |
| Sleepy Joe | 81% | · | 247 | 220 |
| ICE | 80% | · | 349 | 280 |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 80% | · | 597 | 595 |
| Gulf of America | 79% | · | 647 | 647 |
| China / Chinese | 79% | · | 182 | 161 |
| Barack Hussein Obama | 78% | · | 157 | 119 |
| Kamala | 77% | · | 540 | 487 |
| Made in America / American Made | 77% | · | 517 | 491 |
| Supreme Court | 77% | · | 149 | 143 |
| Russia / Ukraine | 72% | · | 45 | 45 |
19 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Donald Trump says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
Related Mentions markets
Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for What will Trump say during his rally in Texas?
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Paxton at 98%, followed by Talarico / Talafreako at 98%, Fake News at 96%. 83.7K contracts have traded, 83.0K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the What will Trump say during his rally in Texas market close?
The listed close date is October 21, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Use this data
Embed these odds
Paste on your site or newsletter; it updates with this page.
<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="What will Trump say during his rally in Texas? Kalshi odds"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/">What will Trump say during his rally in Texas? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
Image badge for READMEs, forums and newsletters that block iframes (HTML or Markdown): 
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/"><img src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/badge.svg" alt="What will Trump say during his rally in Texas? Kalshi odds" height="20"></a>
[](https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/)
Cite this page
APA
What will Trump say during his rally in Texas? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhatwilltrumpsayduringhisrallyintexas, title = {What will Trump say during his rally in Texas? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-texas/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
CC BY 4.0: keep a visible link to this page. More formats: how to cite and reuse Kalshi View.
Follow on Telegram
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.