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What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Mentions · Event KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT09
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Fake News at 96%, followed by Oil / Gas / Gasoline at 96%, Transgender at 94%. 23.4K contracts have traded, 23.4K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Fake News | 96% | · | 590 | 590 |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 96% | · | 277 | 277 |
| Transgender | 94% | · | 1.3K | 1.3K |
| Save America Act | 94% | · | 848 | 848 |
| Healthcare | 94% | · | 134 | 134 |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 88% | · | 56 | 56 |
| Hochul | 86% | · | 189 | 184 |
| Dividend / Stimulus | 78% | · | 255 | 205 |
| Kamala | 75% | · | 40 | 40 |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 75% | · | 21 | 21 |
| Barack Hussein Obama | 75% | · | 20 | 20 |
| Hormuz | 75% | · | 17 | 17 |
| Sleepy Joe | 74% | · | 32 | 27 |
| China / Chinese | 74% | · | 6 | 6 |
| Blockade | 74% | · | 66 | 64 |
| Russia / Ukraine | 74% | · | 21 | 19 |
| Iran (5+ times) | 74% | · | 5 | 5 |
| Made in America / American Made | 73% | · | 19 | 14 |
| Sanctuary | 68% | · | 15 | 13 |
| ICE | 66% | · | 1 | 1 |
19 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Donald Trump says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for What will Trump say during his rally in New York?
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Fake News at 96%, followed by Oil / Gas / Gasoline at 96%, Transgender at 94%. 23.4K contracts have traded, 23.4K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the What will Trump say during his rally in New York market close?
The listed close date is October 23, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-new-york/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhatwilltrumpsayduringhisrallyinnewyork, title = {What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rally-in-new-york/}}HTML credit
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