By Kalshi View Editorial Team · 2026-07-15 · Updated 2026-07-19

Real Federal Reserve photograph by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System / Wikimedia Commons, public domain in the United States.

September 2026 FOMC on Kalshi: Dates, Rules & SEP

Quick answer: The September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting has concluded. Per the Federal Reserve statement of September 16, 2026, the Committee raised the federal-funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, and Kalshi's `KXFEDDECISION-26SEP` event finalized with the Hike 25bps market resolving Yes. This page keeps the original July 19, 2026 rules snapshot on record and adds the verified September 17 outcome recheck below. It is a dated record, not a live odds page.

September 17 update: the decision and how the market finalized

Two separately sourced facts close this event. First, per the official Federal Reserve statement of September 16, 2026, the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, on a 12-0 vote; the prior range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent had been maintained at the July 2026 meeting, so September was a hike, not a hold. A Summary of Economic Projections was released with the meeting.

Second, in the Kalshi event API snapshot rechecked at 2026-09-17T05:31:36Z, all five KXFEDDECISION-26SEP markets reported status finalized with close time 2026-09-16T17:59:00Z: Hike 25bps (KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H25) resolved Yes; Hike 0bps, Hike more than 25bps, Cut 25bps, and Cut more than 25bps each resolved No. The full rule text behind the H25 result, the settlement-source caveats, and the snapshot hashes are documented in the companion September 2026 FOMC decision result article.

The rest of this guide is unchanged from its original July framing and remains on record as the pre-meeting snapshot: what the calendar established, what the July 19 API read showed, and the two official-source discrepancies worth preserving.

What the Federal Reserve calendar and SEP establish

The calendar establishes the scheduled September 15-16 meeting and the SEP designation. It does not define a Kalshi contract. The Federal Reserve's SEP guide describes participant projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and assessments of the appropriate federal-funds-rate path.

The SEP is official context released in connection with the meeting, but it is not a guaranteed policy path and this page does not predict its contents or market effect.

What the exact Kalshi event snapshot establishes

The July 19 official API response identified event ticker KXFEDDECISION-26SEP, titled "Fed decision in Sep 2026?" The record marked the event mutually exclusive and included five nested markets with status active. Each nested market reported a close time of 2026-09-16T17:59:00Z and an expected expiration time of 2026-09-16T18:05:00Z.

Those are timestamped API facts, not promises that the event or fields will remain unchanged. Reopen the exact event and its live market pages before relying on them.

Two official-source discrepancies to preserve

1. Closing time: The exact event API reported 17:59:00Z, or 1:59 PM EDT, while the generic FEDDECISION terms list 1:55 PM ET as the last trading time. The records are not identical, so this page does not select a universal cutoff.
2. One outcome's wording: Ticker KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C26 has a title that says "Cut rates by >25bps", while the API's primary-rule text omits the greater-than sign. This page does not silently repair or independently interpret that mismatch.

When a generic document and an exact event record diverge, record the discrepancy and verify the selected market's live rules. Do not turn an editorial guess into settlement language.

Live-market verification checklist

1. Event and market identity: Confirm the event ticker, selected market ticker, exact title, status, and mutually exclusive structure.
2. Exact rules: Read the selected market's full rules and named outcome verification source. Do not rely only on the API title.
3. Times: Recheck close time, expiration time, expected determination time, and any last-trading language on the live market page.
4. Wording conflict: If the C26 title and rule text still differ, preserve evidence and seek clarification from Kalshi rather than assuming which symbol was intended.
5. Execution: Inspect the current order book for the full intended size. This article contains no live quote or probability.
6. Fees: Apply the current fee schedule to the intended order rather than copying an old example.

Reproducible snapshot record

The repository source brief stores the exact API URL, checked fields, discrepancy notes, and the canonical JSON SHA-256 for the July 19 response. A later review can repeat the request, compare the fields and digest, and document any change without overwriting what was observed here.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the Fed decide at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?

The Committee raised the federal-funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, per the Federal Reserve statement of September 16, 2026. On Kalshi, the KXFEDDECISION-26SEP Hike-25bps market finalized Yes and the four other outcome markets finalized No, per the September 17 API recheck recorded in the decision result article.

When is the September 2026 Federal Reserve meeting?

The Federal Reserve calendar lists the meeting for September 15-16, 2026 and marks it as associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.

Was a September 2026 Fed decision event present on Kalshi when this page was reviewed?

Yes. On July 19, 2026, Kalshi's official event API showed KXFEDDECISION-26SEP with five active, mutually exclusive markets. The event has since finalized: after the September 16 decision, the Hike-25bps market resolved Yes and the other four resolved No, per the September 17 API recheck.

What is included in the Summary of Economic Projections?

The Federal Reserve's guide describes participant projections for real GDP growth, unemployment, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and assessments of the appropriate federal-funds-rate path.

What is the trading cutoff for the September event?

The July 19 exact-event API snapshot reported 2026-09-16T17:59:00Z, while the generic FEDDECISION terms list 1:55 PM ET. Because the official records differ, verify the live market page and exact rules rather than relying on a universal cutoff.

Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.