Last month I placed a resting order on the May CPI print, bid 34 cents for the "above 3.4% YoY" contract. I walked away, made dinner, checked my phone two hours later. Still unfilled. The number came out the next morning and I was sitting there with no position, watching the contract I wanted settle at 87 cents. That empty fill taught me more about Kalshi's order book mechanics than a dozen winners.
A resting order is any limit order you place that doesn't execute immediately. Instead of crossing the spread and taking whatever price is available, you post your bid or offer to the book and wait. On Kalshi, these are sometimes called maker orders because you're making liquidity rather than taking it.
The mechanics are straightforward:
This is different from a market order, where you accept the best available price right now. Market orders fill instantly but often at worse prices, especially in thin markets.
Prediction markets live and die by liquidity. A market with tight spreads and deep books lets you enter and exit positions efficiently. A market with wide spreads and sparse orders punishes you on every trade.
When you post a resting order, you're contributing to that liquidity. You're telling the market: "I'll buy at 34 cents" or "I'll sell at 71 cents." Other traders see that and can respond. In a sense, every resting order is a small public service, even if your motivation is purely selfish.
On Kalshi, you can view the order book for any contract. Before placing a resting order, I always check:
A 5-cent spread on a Fed decision contract (KXFEDDECISION) is very different from a 15-cent spread on some obscure weather market. The tighter the spread, the more likely your resting order fills quickly.
Here's the part that burned me on that CPI trade. Fill risk is the chance that your resting order never executes before the market resolves or moves away from you.
Fill risk comes in a few flavors:
That last one is subtle but important. On the CME desk, we called it "getting picked off." If your resting order fills suspiciously fast, ask yourself why the other side was so eager to trade with you.
I've developed a few habits that help me manage fill risk while still getting decent prices.
Before posting a bid, look at where the last few trades actually printed. If the market has been trading at 38 to 40 cents and you're bidding 34, you might be waiting a long time. Or forever.
Big orders on thin markets are a signal. Other traders see a 500-contract bid and wonder what you know. Sometimes that attracts flow. Sometimes it scares people off. I usually start smaller and add if I'm getting filled.
Kalshi lets you choose how long your order stays active. For fast-moving events (like Fed announcements or election nights), I use shorter durations. For slower-burning markets, I'll let orders sit for days.
I've missed good trades because I was stubborn about price. Saving 2 cents on entry doesn't matter if you never get filled. Sometimes paying up for immediate execution is the right call.
Resting orders work best in liquid, stable markets where you have time. Fed decision contracts a week out? Great candidate. You can post a bid, check back periodically, and adjust as news comes in.
They work poorly in fast-moving situations. On election night 2024, I tried posting resting orders on state outcome contracts. The market was moving so fast that by the time I refreshed, my orders were stale. I ended up crossing the spread repeatedly just to get positioned. Expensive lesson.
If you want to talk through specific setups or share fills, I post trade ideas in the Telegram channel I run. Always happy to hear what's working for other people.
Since this comes up: Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, requires KYC, and operates in USD. The regulatory structure means the order book functions like a traditional exchange. Your resting orders are real limit orders on a regulated venue, not just database entries on some offshore platform. That matters for execution quality and for knowing your counterparty risk is limited.
It also means you can't just sign up anonymously with a VPN. The tradeoff is legitimacy for friction.
No. You're not charged fees for orders that sit unfilled. Kalshi only charges fees when a trade actually executes. You can post and cancel resting orders freely, which lets you adjust your prices as the market moves without penalty. Just don't spam the book.
Kalshi sends notifications when orders fill, and you can check your portfolio in the app or web interface. I keep the browser tab open during active trading sessions. For longer-term positions, I just check once or twice a day. The fills show up in your order history with timestamps.
Yes, your price and size are visible in the public order book. Other traders can see that someone is bidding 34 cents for 100 contracts, for example. They don't see your identity, just the price level and quantity. This is how price discovery works on any exchange.
Unfilled resting orders are canceled when the market closes for settlement. If you had a bid sitting at 34 cents and the contract expires, that order simply disappears. You won't be charged anything. The contract settles at 0 or 100 cents depending on the outcome, and your unfilled order is gone.
Not financial advice. I trade my own money and you can lose yours. Do your own research.