Update, September 11, 2026: the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2026 Consumer Price Index on schedule at 8:30 a.m. ET. The all-items index rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August and 3.4 percent over the past 12 months, and the two Kalshi CPI events tied to the release have finalized. This guide, originally published July 17 as a pre-release checklist, now records the official figures, what Kalshi's finalized markets showed, and the source checks that still apply to any future CPI-linked market.
Primary sources checked: The BLS September 2026 release calendar scheduled the release for September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The BLS Consumer Price Index news release for August 2026 (USDL-26-1496), published September 11, 2026, reports the official figures. Kalshi API snapshots of KXCPI-26AUG and KXCPIYOY-26AUG, taken September 11, 2026 after the release, show finalized results. The CFTC designation order for KalshiEX confirms the exchange's regulated status but does not specify any particular CPI contract. Source snapshot date: September 11, 2026.
The official BLS schedule provides three verified facts:
The BLS calendar page notes it was last modified on February 18, 2026, and states that schedules are updated as needed. Traders should therefore recheck the calendar closer to the event rather than assuming the schedule cannot change.
The CPI report will cover price changes across consumer goods and services during August 2026. The BLS calculates both headline CPI (all items) and core CPI (excluding food and energy). Which measure matters for any given Kalshi contract depends entirely on that contract's settlement rules, not on BLS methodology alone.
The release schedule tells traders when data becomes public. It does not tell traders anything about Kalshi market availability, contract terms, or settlement mechanics. Specifically, the BLS calendar does not confirm:
Treating the BLS release time as equivalent to a Kalshi contract's close or settlement time would be an error. These are separate sources with separate purposes. The September 11 update below records how each of these questions resolved for August 2026.
The BLS published the August 2026 Consumer Price Index on schedule at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, September 11 (release USDL-26-1496). The all-items CPI-U rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after a 0.1 percent increase in July, and rose 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending August before seasonal adjustment, matching the 12-month rate through July. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.3 percent on the month and 2.4 percent over the year. The gasoline index rose 3.9 percent, accounting for over a third of the monthly all-items increase, and the energy index rose 2.1 percent on the month. On a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, the BLS public API shows an August index of 334.980 against 333.918 in July, an unrounded 0.32 percent rise.
After the release, a dated September 11 recheck of the Kalshi API shows both August CPI events finalized:
The BLS news release and Kalshi's finalized results are two independent sources, and they agree for August 2026. The close times (8:25 and 8:29 a.m. ET) came from each market's own rules, not from the BLS calendar, which is exactly why the two sources must be checked separately.
Before planning any trade around the August 2026 CPI release on September 11, traders need to check current contract status directly on Kalshi. The verification process involves several steps:
As of the September 11, 2026 update, August 2026 CPI contracts existed and both events are now finalized. The verification steps above remain the correct process for any future CPI release, since Kalshi lists new monthly events as their reference months approach and only the live contract page or API shows current status.
A contract's own rules identify its settlement source and calculation. If a current Kalshi CPI contract exists, traders should verify these points on that exact contract page:
Contract rules should specify which published value counts. Do not assume the initial 8:30 a.m. figure is automatically the settlement value without reading the contract terms.
For traders building a calendar around inflation data, the August 2026 CPI release on September 11 fits into a broader official schedule. The same BLS calendar lists these nearby releases:
Each of those nearby releases has since been published; the same BLS calendar remains the authoritative source for upcoming months.
Traders following multiple economic indicators can use the @Kalshi_market Telegram channel for discussion around release timing and market activity. Keep in mind that calendar proximity does not imply correlation, and each data release affects markets differently depending on expectations.
This page serves as a static planning guide, not a live odds board. Before placing any trade on a CPI-linked Kalshi market, complete these verification steps:
The CFTC source above confirms KalshiEX's designation as a contract market, but it does not establish the terms or availability of a CPI contract. Verify current eligibility and all contract-specific requirements directly on Kalshi.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2026 Consumer Price Index on Friday, September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, as listed in the official BLS September 2026 release calendar. The published report shows the all-items index rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August and 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending August before seasonal adjustment.
No. The BLS schedule and Kalshi contract rules are separate sources. In the September 11, 2026 recheck, the finalized Kalshi August CPI markets closed at 8:25 a.m. ET for the monthly print and 8:29 a.m. ET for the year-over-year markets, each per their own contract rules rather than the BLS calendar. Read the exact rules of any contract before treating a release time as a close time.
As of the September 11, 2026 recheck, Kalshi listed two August 2026 CPI events: KXCPI-26AUG (CPI in August, 15 threshold markets) and KXCPIYOY-26AUG (Inflation in August 2026, CPI year over year, 26 threshold markets). All nested markets finalized after the BLS release. Current status for any month can be checked in the Kalshi markets directory or the public Kalshi API.
The contract terms are authoritative, not this guide. In the finalized August 2026 events, the thresholds settled consistently with the BLS headline figures: above 0.3% but not above 0.4% on the monthly print (BLS reported 0.4% seasonally adjusted) and above 3.3% but not above 3.4% year over year (BLS reported 3.4%). The exact calculation for each series is defined in its contract terms document.
Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.