{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "generated_at": "2026-07-17T11:53:40.534750+00:00",
  "checkpoint_utc": "2024-11-05T12:00:00+00:00",
  "checkpoint_eastern": "2024-11-05T07:00:00-05:00",
  "selection": {
    "markets": "Republican national popular-vote contract plus seven commonly grouped swing-state Republican winner contracts",
    "price": "Last public trade at or before the fixed checkpoint",
    "outcome": "result field from Kalshi's historical market endpoint"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "The checkpoint was selected before extraction but is only one moment in a moving market.",
    "The eight contracts are correlated and do not form an independent calibration sample.",
    "A realized Yes does not prove that every sub-50-cent forecast was wrong; low-probability events sometimes occur.",
    "A single realized cycle cannot establish that markets outperform polls, models, or pundits.",
    "Prices are transaction prices, not a guarantee of executable size at the same level.",
    "The Brier component is descriptive per contract; no aggregate score is presented as a calibrated benchmark."
  ],
  "api_documentation": [
    "https://docs.kalshi.com/api-reference/historical/get-historical-markets",
    "https://docs.kalshi.com/api-reference/historical/get-historical-trades"
  ],
  "markets": [
    {
      "ticker": "POPVOTE-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins national popular vote",
      "event_ticker": "POPVOTE-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win the popular vote?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:59:00.566142Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.2500",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "6.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:16:29.240641Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "36740947.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.5625,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/POPVOTE-24-R"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PRESPARTYAZ-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins Arizona",
      "event_ticker": "PRESPARTYAZ-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win Arizona in the presidential election?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Arizona in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:58:36.271694Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.7700",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "14.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:21:36.848108Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "3271288.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.0529,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/PRESPARTYAZ-24-R"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PRESPARTYGA-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins Georgia",
      "event_ticker": "PRESPARTYGA-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win Georgia in the presidential election?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Georgia in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:59:04.576535Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.6700",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "746.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:17:48.909284Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "10159128.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.1089,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/PRESPARTYGA-24-R"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PRESPARTYMI-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins Michigan",
      "event_ticker": "PRESPARTYMI-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win Michigan in the presidential election?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Michigan in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:56:37.692066Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.3500",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "54.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:27:26.878143Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "6728815.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.4225,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/PRESPARTYMI-24-R"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PRESPARTYNV-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins Nevada",
      "event_ticker": "PRESPARTYNV-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win Nevada in the presidential election?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Nevada in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:58:33.222898Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.5900",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "13.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:57:20.03804Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "5683000.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.1681,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/PRESPARTYNV-24-R"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PRESPARTYNC-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins North Carolina",
      "event_ticker": "PRESPARTYNC-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win North Carolina in the presidential election?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins North Carolina in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:53:25.068631Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.6900",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "100.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:25:40.808791Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "6633779.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.0961,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/PRESPARTYNC-24-R"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PRESPARTYPA-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins Pennsylvania",
      "event_ticker": "PRESPARTYPA-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win Pennsylvania in the presidential election?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:54:06.256876Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.5700",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "87.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:44:09.197966Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "9124687.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.1849,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/PRESPARTYPA-24-R"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "PRESPARTYWI-24-R",
      "label": "Republican wins Wisconsin",
      "event_ticker": "PRESPARTYWI-24",
      "title": "Will the Republican party win Wisconsin in the presidential election?",
      "rules_primary": "If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "checkpoint_trade_time": "2024-11-05T11:58:39.852452Z",
      "checkpoint_yes_price_dollars": "0.4100",
      "checkpoint_trade_contracts": "87.00",
      "result": "yes",
      "settlement_time": "2025-01-06T19:46:15.319464Z",
      "total_volume_contracts": "4064759.00",
      "single_outcome_brier_component": 0.3481,
      "historical_market_api": "https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/historical/markets/PRESPARTYWI-24-R"
    }
  ]
}